Friday, September 28, 2007

NCAA Football Winning Picks: Week 5

Time for this week's NCAA football picks. For the season we are 12-9 and up 231.75 units. We had a rough week 4 going 2-4, but what do you expect when Syracuse wins on the road as a 30 something point dog. But we’re still up for the year and feeling great about Week 5 games.

Big game this week – Cal at Oregon (-6.5). This spread opened at 4.5 and has moved up 2 points which is curious as only 54% of the “side” money is going on the Ducks. As always, first four picks are laying 50 units and the lock of the week is laying 150 units for a change. Also, to make it interesting, we’re picking all road teams this week.

Cal +6.5 at Oregon. Something’s not right with this line and I could be on the receiving end of it. To be safe, buy that extra half point to push the line to +7. Cal has lost the last two times they’ve played in Eugene, but never by more than 7 points.

Michigan -16.5 at Northwestern. Michigan’s O line and Defense looked back on track last week against a solid Penn State team. If the line moves before you get your pick in, make sure you buy it down to 17 or under.
Oklahoma at Colorado OVER 56. OU averages around 60 points a game. Enough said. Take the over.

Notre Dame -22 at Purdue. Yes, I’m nuts. But something tells me that the Irish might actually score more than one touchdown on offense this week. Purdue has been putting big points on the board this year. Their lowest point total has been 45. But the past two weeks they gave up 22 points to Central Michigan and 31 to Minnesota, so I think the Irish will score enough to cover the spread.

Penn State -3 at Illinois. WHAT??? Look, Illinois is much better this year and have had two decent recruiting classes. And yes, Penn State had a disappointing loss last week. But there is no way they are losing to Illinois this week. And for this weeks “I Can’t Believe This Spread Lock Of The Week” lay 3 units instead of the customary 2 on Penn State.

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