Wednesday, March 30, 2011

12 Deadly Accurate 2011 Baseball Prospectus Predictions

Dear BP,

I'm a fan of your product. I subscribe to your Web site, routinely purchase your football, basketball and baseball annuals, and rely on them as part of my fantasy sports preparations.

On the whole, I am pleased with what you make.

And then there's your projections.

Those "deadly accurate" projections, to quote your marketing.

Which predict the following points for 2011, in this handy-dandy list in the back of your book, which I'm really hoping are used verbatim by the other people in my league...

> No hitter in either league to have more than 41 home runs, 121 RBIs, or 51 steals

> Only 13 total hitters to hit 30 home runs, and just seven -- seven! -- to make it to 100 RBIs

> Cincy's Drew Stubbs, a 20/30 man last year, to have 32 steals... in the minors

> Nick Johnson to be second in all of MLB in on-base percentage, at a whopping .402

> Chase Utley to be the best all-around second baseman

> Carlos Beltran to be the best all-around center fielder

> No pitcher in either league to have more than 15 wins

> Only two pitchers to have more than 200 strikeouts, and neither of them to work in the National League

> Only two starting pitchers to finish with under a 3-run ERA

> No pitcher to have more than 40 saves, and that pitcher is... Joe Nathan

> Jon Papelbon and Bobby Jenks to combine for 56 saves, more or less split evenly, and

> Trevor Hoffman to lead the Brewers with 17 saves, the same amount as Carlos Marmol

If any of these things come true, I'll eat a bug. Considering that Hoff's retired, Paps and Jenks are sharing a job in Boston, there's always a guy breaking 15 wins and all of the other marks, and Beltran and Utley are major injury risks...

So, well... next year, could you actually edit this thing, since we are all actually paying for it?

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