Wednesday, August 31, 2011

2011 Fantasy Football: Undervalued and Overvalued QBs

Undervalued

1) David Garrard. Sure, he's terrible... but he's not losing the job this year, he still runs the ball relatively well, and the AFC South is opening up all kinds of ripe targets. With Mike Thomas, Mercedes Lewis and Maurice Jones-Drew, his targets aren't that terrible, either. He's basically a free agent in most leagues, and will be a matchup play. If your roster is deep enough and you can live with the swings, put him on your bench and go for the ultimate in underpriced production.

2) Drew Brees. Last year was ugly with the turnovers, and he's going to throw it less this year due to a more effective running game. Some folks are also looking for him to miss Reggie Bush, especially in the red zone. But this misses the fact that Jimmy Graham is going to be a huge help for him, and Lance Moore and Marques Colston are looking fairly healthy for once. Vick and Rodgers will go before him, but at the end of the year, he's going to be the top player at the position.

3) Matt Schaub. Another post-hype play a year after he was a disappointment. Houston's pass defense won't be as terrible this year, so he'll get his hands on the ball a little more often; I also expect the Texans to run the ball a little less effectively this year. Add in health for Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels, and you're going to wind up with top five value, late in the second tier of QB selections.

Overvalued


1) Michael Vick. You pretty much have to take him in the top half of the first round, so he's pretty much overvalued by definition. It's hard to see how he does everything that's expected of him, since the turnovers more or less have to go up, and the health issues still exist. I'll also add in this little hidden bummer factor; if the NFC East is as weak as it looks right now, and the Eagles run away with the division, Andy Reid has a history of benching his regulars in advance of a playoff round. In a head to head league, you could wind up with Old School Manning here in Weeks 15 to 17.

2) Tom Brady. I'm not loving his top-line receivers, and I am loving his running game. Brady's almost always been a better real QB than fake one, and 2011 is pretty much the same story. He's also not as young as he used to be, and the Jets' game last year showed that your only real hope in beating the Patriots is to smack him around. I'm not loving the line, either. He won't fall apart, but he won't deliver to were you draft him, either.

3) Jay Cutler. Let's face it; drafting this guy means you have to root for him, and maybe even watching him. Not fun. With Mike Martz insisting on starting his worst two WRs, TE security blanket Gregg Olsen plying his trade in Carolina, and a special teams situation that won't make the difference that they used to, I'm not loving his situation. And one of these years, he's going to get hurt behind this line, and not get the job back. He's just not that good.

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