Monday, September 3, 2012

Five Fantasy Football Tidbits That We're Going To Make Too Much Of

Nothing makes me happier than watching overreactions from news, in the form of transaction trends, before the games even begin. So here's the moments that are causing fantasy football owners to lose their fudge.

1) The Chargers are going to start a rookie free agent at left tackle in their opening game against the Raiders in Oakland.

The Overreaction: Philip Rivers is gonna die!

The Reality: The Raiders game will be on MNF as part of that terrible doubleheader at the end of opening weekend. Since that game has to be, by law, horrible, there's a very good chance that Rivers is going to throw for 250 yards and 4 TDs as the Raider DBs fall down in coverage. But only if, like me, you're going to have Rivers on your bench.

Long-term, a bad OL problem is an issue for Rivers, but he's managed to stay healthy for a long time, and the new rules make for all kinds of protection for the QB. They'll eventually get healthy, and Rivers is going to still fill the air with footballs as a viable second or third-tier QB. Settle down.

2) Maurice Jones-Drew ended his holdout.

The Overreaction: My Rashad Jennings pick is worthless, I tell you! Worthless!

The Reality: Holdouts that are as bitter as this one rarely end happily ever after. I expect MJD to have an indifferent year now that he's aware of just how little his franchise values him, and the team to try to turn this more into a committee situation now that they've seen good things from Jennings. There's also the very real chance that MJD gets hurt or even dealt, not that football trades ever happen.

3) Hakeem Nicks says he's going to play in the opener regardless of his current injury situation.

The Overreaction: Nicks is going to be hurt all year!

The Reality: It's the NFL; guys are hurt all the time, but WRs actually tend to get better and stay that way longer. I think Nicks will be fine, and soon.

4) Jason Witten's status for Week One is still up the air due to his lacerated spleen.

The Overreaction: GAHHH! His lacerated *spleen*? I think I'm going to be sick!

The Reality: This is all going to work out for fantasy players, since it means the Cowboys are going to limit any actual blocking he'll do, and they are thin for possession types in the passing game. He's still not a great threat in the red zone, but at the end of the year, he's going to have his usual 800-900 yards and a handful of scores. If you have to bench him in week one, he's still going to be an asset for the rest of the year.

5) Kenny Britt's suspension came down to one game.

The Overreaction: ZOMG, just one? Bump up his draft rank by several rounds! He's a WR1 talent!

The Reality: Um, remember those injuries and arrests that caused you to think Britt was a WR4 type? Those tend to be reoccurring conditions, folks. Britt's truly fortunate to have just a single game lost due to suspension, but if you think that he's going to suit up for all of the other 15 Titans games and provide week-in week-out performances, you're smoking stuff that Britt might want to share with you.

Remember, folks... your season is not won or lost in Week One. And if it is, you need to get in a better league.


Anonymous said...

That makes so much sense

Anthony said...

Interesting post.

Ads In This Size Rule