Thursday, September 21, 2017

2017 Week 3 NFL Picks: Next Stop Niche

Enjoy that little slice, NFL
The further along we get into this NFL season, the more that I'm struck by the following.

1) The NFL's popularity is on a clear and likely permanent downturn, and

2) There are just an inordinate number of teams that are terrible to look at, even if they are not all that terrible.

I've spent most of the first two weeks of NFL football putting up with drunken Browns fans, pedalling my way to fitness on a gym bike, or listening to the game on the radio in my car... and getting lost in the game? Just not happening. Maybe that's going to come back at some point, and maybe not, but it's hard to see how the league is attracting anyone but the addicted right now.

This week's slate? Not going to help that situation. But as I'm off to the best start in the history of the column... on to the picks!

* * * * *

LA Rams at SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5)

Terrible Night for Football returns with a California game that seems almost designed to impact as little people as possible. Give me the home team to actually score a touchdown (gasp!), and the road team to continue to not handle prosperity.

Niners 17, Rams 16

BALTIMORE (-3.5) at Jacksonville


These teams might have good defenses, or good offense might have just become like unicorns in the NFL. I'm going to assume that the Raven fan base owns this game, because after a decade of incompetence, who roots for Jacksonville?

Ravens 20, Jaguars 14

DENVER (-3) at Buffalo


Buffalo management is already making noise about not starting QB Tyrod Taylor, as if he's the reason why they have the worst group of wideouts in the league. You have to love Buffalo. Oh, wait, you don't? Yes, you don't.

Broncos 23, Bills 17

New Orleans at CAROLINA (-5.5)


This looks like it's going to be the last year for Drew Brees in New Orleans, and the big hope is that he survives it. This road matchup hasn't been a good one for him in recent years, and the Panther defense is looking like one of the best units in the NFL this year. Notice how all of these games are sliding under the over/under total so far? Might have something to do with the bad ratings...

Panthers 24, Saints 17

PITTSBURGH (-7.5) at Chicago


The Steelers aren't a great road team, but the Bears are just a train wreck right now, and this is a relatively easy road game for Steeler Fan to come out and own. Feel free to start the Mitch Trubisky Countdown Clock.

Steelers 26, Bears 16

Atlanta at DETROIT (+3)


Is it time for the Lions to actually look like they can, you know, beat a playoff team? I want to believe, and the Falcons are due to fail soon, what with the hangover of the Super Bowl loss and the historical record of what happens to those teams. But this isn't exactly a high confidence pick, especially on a short week.

Lions 27, Falcons 24

CLEVELAND (-1) at Indianapolis


Probably two of the worst six teams in the league this year, but the Browns are due for a big running game, not to mention one where their QBs don't commit LOL INTs.

Browns 24, Colts 20

Tampa at MINNESOTA (NL)


This one seems to be off the books because no one knows whether Vikings QB Sam Bradford will play. I'm thinking he will, that Bucs QB Jamesis Winston will continue to frustrate with inaccuracy, and that the loud home dome will come into play. But it'll be close.

Vikings 24, Bucs 23

Houston at NEW ENGLAND (-13.5)


The Texans come into this one with a stout defense, a long week of prep, and the knowledge that their offense is probably going to enjoy playing against the suddenly terrible Pats' defense. It won't matter, because their offense is just that bad, and NE needs the game. Oh, and they've got the game's best coach, rather than whatever Bill O'Brien is.

Patriots 34, Texans 20

MIAMI (-6.5) at New York Jets


How bad is New York Football right now? Nearly as bad as Los Angeles Football. Suddenly the ratings problems seem even more understandable. The Smoking Jay Cutler hype train will roll until they actually play a good team.

Dolphins 30, Jets 17

NY GIANTS (+6) at Philadelphia


The Eagles are the much better team, on longer rest, at home, and could spend most of this game smacking Eli Manning around. So why am I picking the Giants to cover? Because they need the game more, and because Eagles HC Doug Pederson manages games not to lose. He's a force to be worried about, honestly.

Eagles 27, Giants 23

SEATTLE (+2.5) at Tennessee


Expect a big game for both running backs, as neither defense is great at stopping the run. Seattle has only scored one touchdown so far this year, which hardly screams out pick the road team, but I just don't see the Titans as ready to win this game yet.

Seahawks 24, Titans 20

CINCINNATI (+9) at Green Bay


The Packers are really beat up, the Bengals had the longer time to prepare and need the game more, and NFL games just feature lower scoring and less easy covers than they used to. The Bengal defense is also better than given credit, and QB Aaron Rodgers isn't the same without WR Jordy Nelson at full speed.

Packers 24, Bengals 17

KANSAS CITY (-3) at LA Chargers


The Chargers can't draw to the NFL's smallest venue. How's that move working out for you, Dean Spanos? It couldn't happen to a nicer piece of human garbage. Oh, and the Chiefs are actually good, and will exploit the Charger secondary.

Chiefs 26, Chargers 20

OAKLAND (-3) at Washington


Listening to Raider Radio this week in the Bay Area is making me dislike this fan base, honestly. You'd think that defensive coordinators are just ready to slit their wrists rather than play the game against a team with So Many Weapons, and that the roster has So Many Character Guys. I get it, you are all very excited to be 2-0 in a region where the other team is unwatchable. Having said all that, it's going to get worse after this week, because DC under the lights is usually a train wreck.

Raiders 30, Racial Slurs 24

DALLAS (-3) at Arizona


Obvious bounce-back game for the Cowboys after last week's de-pantsing in Denver, and the extra day will help them rev up the Us Against The World mindset that makes for road covers. Oh, and the Cardinals are missing the game's best running back. That matters too.

Cowboys 24, Cardinals 20

Last week: 11-5

Season: 22-9

Career: 903-898-54

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