Thursday, September 28, 2017

2017 Week 4 NFL Picks: Wear A Hat On Your Ass

Coming soon: trucker models
Last week was the first loser for the picks column this year, with all kinds of beatdowns coming to roost. Any week where you'd win your fantasy league with Blake Bortles, Case Keenum and Todd Gurley can't be taken seriously, but that seems to be where we are in this season. David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell are causing nothing but heartache, the entire league has been dragged into politics due to President Asshat inspiring Fan Asshat into hating black people who've earned a large payday for risking early death and disability ire and hatred, and the ratings went up (!) because the games were exciting. Also, well, Dallas in prime time. America is so, so great now. I can't handle the greatness. It's great when the politics of white supremacists gets into every damn thing. So, so great.

The lesson? We're dumb, the games are random, and Asshat's supporters can't watch anymore, because blacks are making money, people are trying to avoid concussions a teeny tiny bat, and it's un-American to protest in any way that someone might notice, unless of course you are for President Asshat. On the plus side, there should be a bunch of tickets available from all of the people who can't watch anymore.

And with that... on to the picks!

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Chicago at GREEN BAY (-7)

There are good reasons to think the Bears can cover this number. Green Bay has a poor defense and beat-up offensive line, and Bear RB Jordan Howard came back to life in last week's game. But Terrible Night Football and on the road tells me that the Pack will eventually pull away for the cover.

Packers 30, Bears 20

New Orleans at MIAMI (+3)

Hell if I know what happened to both of these teams last week, but I'm not ready to believe the Saints are a good road team yet. Yes, I believe in Jay Cutler, probably more than he does.

Dolphins 27, Saints 20

Buffalo at ATLANTA (-8)

Road dome, Falcons seem to be that rare SB loser that's better the next year, and the Bills aren't going to be able to match scores.

Falcons 34, Bills 23

PITTSBURGH (-3) at Baltimore

This game is always decided by a field goal, both teams are coming off terrible losses, and the Steeler offense sucks on the road, because their QB is old enough where that happens all the time now. I'm going with the road team anyway because the refs always seem to take it out on the Ravens, and their fan base seems to be taking the kneeling thing with so much butthurt that they might not have a home field advantage anymore. But count on it being a 3-point win and a push anyway.

Steelers 20, Ravens 16

CINCINNATI (+3) at Cleveland

Ohio Football is irrelevant, the Browns can't run the ball, and the Bengal offense seems to be finally getting the message that they should feed the one guy (Joe Mixon) who might actually be a decent RB (and a terrible, terrible human being). I'm going with the road team because LOL Cleveland, especially when it comes to turnovers.

Bengals 27, Browns 24

LA RAMS (+6.5) at Dallas

I'm going to regret this because the Rams can't seem to handle prosperity, but their offense has been good enough this year to think they can cover a fairly big number on the road. Also, you know, kneeling plus redneck fan base equals drop of home field advantage, and Dallas barely had one of those to begin with.

Cowboys 24, Rams 20

TENNESSEE (-1.5) at Houston

Really impressive win for the Titans last week, and the Texans (still, honestly, the dumbest goddamn team name in sports: the Houston People Who Live In Houstons would be as good) are springing holes in their defense, mostly because JJ Watt isn't a game changer anymore. Not that you'd ever hear it from the media.

Titans 24, Texans 20

DETROIT (NL) at Minnesota

Another week where the line isn't on the books due to the Vikings' uncertainty at QB, but we've gotta go, so we're going to do that. Give me the Lions to bounce back from a tough loss at home, and the Vikings to fail to handle prosperity / have to use Case Keenum at QB again, only without the career day.

Lions 20, Vikings 17

Carolina at NEW ENGLAND (-9.5)

It was so nice, that brief window after Week 1 when it looked like the Patriots were going to decline because Tom Brady wasn't all that and the defense was a sieve. The defense is probably still a sieve, but Brady's gone back to pinball numbers, and the Panther offense these days looks like Cam Newton has been forced at gunpoint to make the world think Christian McCaffrey is the bestus rookie ever just from target volume. Oh, and their defense suddenly turned into turnstiles last week against Drew Brees, so they are roadkill in Beantown.

Patriots 34, Panthers 20

JACKSONVILLE (-3.5) at NY Jets

Good Lord, both of these slugs won last week, and convincingly. What a world. I'll take the Panthers on the road, because their defense might be for real, and I'm not prepared to live in a world where the Jet offense exists. Whoever wins this game is going to harbor playoff delusions. What a world.

Jaguars 23, Jets 16

SAN FRANCISCO (+7) at Arizona

The Cardinal defense looks exposed this year, they can't protect the QB, and their RBs are all single-down wonders. SF has been schizophrenic in terms of which unit shows up which week, but at least in this game, they come in with long rest and the hope that their offense figured out some stuff last time out. Besides, division games are usually closer than this line, and in this year's NFL, everybody wins eventually. (See Jets, last week...)

Niners 24, Cardinals 23

PHILADELPHIA (+1.5) at LA Chargers

This will be another home game for Eagle Fan, who travels well and won't mind going to SoCal for a football game in close quarters. LA has two teams, wants none, and the Chargers aren't exactly good at protecting the football. So long as Philly can dominate at the line, they'll generate some in this one, and QB Carson Wentz is going to shine if his coach ever lets him.

Eagles 27, Chargers 24

NY Giants at TAMPA (-3)

I think the Giant defense is starting to show cracks from 2.75 games of offensive ineptitude, and the Bucs are much less ready to write off the year. Both teams should be desperate, though, so this isn't exactly a pick of high confidence.

Bucs 24, Giants 20

OAKLAND (+2.5) at Denver

WTH, Raiders -- that road "effort" in DC last week was putrid, and the Broncos getting punked by Buffalo was also unexpected. I'm giving Oakland one more shot under the idea that their offensive line can't foul the bed as bad as they did last week. Also, I don't trust the Bronco offense in the red zone.

Raiders 26, Broncos 23

INDIANAPOLIS (+13) at Seattle

Something's not right in Seattle, and until it is, covering big numbers just isn't in the cards. The Colts are going to move the ball a bit with their mobile QB, and the Seahawks are going to focus on their running game to the point of taking some of the air out of the game.

Seahawks 20, Colts 10

Washington at KANSAS CITY (-7)

It's time for the Chief defense to step up at home, which they pretty much tend to do, especially against teams with ball security issues. I also think you can run on this DC defense, and that QB Alex Smith has an under the radar tendency to play well under the lights.

Chiefs 31, Racial Slurs 16

Last week: 6-10

Season: 28-19

Career: 909-908-54

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